Why did Democrats get hammered at the polls? The core problem is they have forgotten how to talk to Americans who don’t go to college. That’s 60% of the voters.  Democrats have alienated many blue-collar Americans by focusing on “identity” issues rather than economic concerns. They have emphasized “social justice” initiatives and transgender rights, which turns off many white voters as well as Latinos. The Democratic Party must become a Big Tent again, not a group of huts for identity groups.  

What will Trump do if he wins? Trump will establish a de facto dictatorship, by unleashing a two-pronged reign of terror and intimidation. Trump will prosecute his political “enemies” and lock up millions of immigrants in concentration camps. Trump will abandon Ukraine, allowing Putin to win the war, and dismantle the NATO alliance. This will be a green light for Xi Jinping to invade or otherwise take over Taiwan. The US will lose its role of global leader. 

Kamala Harris needs strong support from Black and Latino voters to win the election.  The good news for Harris: about 80% of Black voters and over half of Hispanics will probably cast their ballots for her.  The other news:  Harris’ support from these key groups is lower than Joe Biden’s was in 2020, particularly among men.  Both groups have felt the effects of inflation keenly. Donald Trump has convinced them, falsely, that Biden’s spending plans caused it.  But they also care about abortion access and the candidates’ characters, which helps Harris.   

If you miss the high inflation of 2022-23, don’t worry.  Donald Trump has proposed a set of policies guaranteed to bring inflation roaring back…and wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.   Trump is campaigning on four very bad ideas: imposing high tariffs, deporting 20-25 million supposedly illegal immigrants, eliminating the Federal Reserve’s independence, and extending and expanding his tax cuts.  If Trump pushed through those proposals, inflation could run at 6 to 9% for years, interest rates could soar, and the economy might stagnate.  

Could we see a repeat of the 2016 election this year?  One candidate, obviously bright and competent, has broad experience in government.  The other candidate pushes racist themes, admires tyrants and was woefully incompetent in the White House. Yet the race is a toss-up.  The common denominator between the two elections is the Democratic candidate is a woman…and this time, a woman of color.   When voters say that they “want to learn more about Harris”, is that because they won’t admit, “I don’t want to vote for a Black woman”.  

Kamala Harris cut Donald Trump down to size during their debate, reducing him to the role of Ranter-in-Chief.  The former prosecutor seized the initiative at the outset, putting Trump on the defensive.  Harris never lost control, while Trump suffered from several self-inflicted wounds.  She constantly attacked Trump, baiting him so skillfully that he repeatedly lost his cool.  Trump seemed almost deranged at times, as he spewed out one outrageous lie after another.     

Kamala Harris has defied many observers’ expectations, and her campaign is off to a good start.  Democrats now have a fighting chance, but they should beware the danger of overconfidence. This will likely be a very tight race. For many young Americans and people of color, Harris’ candidacy is inspiring.  But in some respects Democrats are rolling the dice by asking voters to choose a Black woman, and a liberal Californian, as their next leader.  Still, Harris has made some astute moves, selecting Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate and moving to the center on certain issues.  Meanwhile Donald Trump is suffering from a series of unforced errors, like picking JD Vance and attacking Harris….because she considers herself Black? 

We are thrilled and relieved that Biden stepped aside, but we wish he had not endorsed Kamala Harris. Our dream ticket would have been Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA). We hope that Harris has improved as a candidate since her 2020 campaign. The VP has had high staff turnover and is not generally a compelling public speaker. Still, Harris is very bright, relatively young and telegenic. She may attract more support from young voters and Black voters. However, Harris’ poll ratings are not much better than Biden’s, so she faces an uphill battle to beat Donald Trump. That could change; Trump is neither invincible nor a particularly strong candidate.

If Joe Biden does not withdraw from the race, the odds are that Donald Trump will return to the White House. If that happens, Trump will wreak vengeance on his “enemies” and dismantle our democracy. For the good of our country-- to avoid a fascist dictatorship--Biden must step aside. An open convention might be messy, but it will be exciting. Democrats can get fired up by the candidate, rather than trudging sullenly to the polls in November…or just staying home on Election Day. The Democratic Party can showcase its new generation of leaders and let them duke it out in a series of town halls and debates.

After the 2020 election, Texas elected a draconian law, SB 1, to restrict access to voting, even though no fraud occurred in the state. SB 1 set the “gold standard” for voter suppression laws; it created numerous obstacles for voters to cast ballots and empowered volunteer poll watchers. The goal is to suppress and minority voters as the Republican Party seeks to hold onto its majority. The law has created a serious risk that Texas election vigilantes could intimidate voters or otherwise disrupt the election in November.

The demographics of Texas are shifting rapidly, as the Latino population surges and migrants from other states—almost all of them people of color—move to its booming cities. Texan Latinos now slightly outnumber whites, and they still lean Democratic. Four out of the largest Texan cities have become solidly blue; the fifth is purple. But the political landscape has not reflected these changes. The Republican Party has fought tenaciously to stay in power. Politicians have relied on two main techniques to disenfranchise minority voters: gerrymandering and voter suppression laws, including SB 1, the “gold standard” for restricting access to voting.

Donald Trump’s conviction was a victory for democracy and the rule of law. The judge conducted a fair trial and justice was served, despite the defendant’s immense political power and wealth. The judicial process worked and showed that no one, not even Donald Trump, is above the law. But many Republican leaders have a big problem with that. Joe Biden and other Democratic leaders should come out swinging on this issue. They must counter Trump’s lies about the case and Republicans’ propaganda campaign against our judicial system. This battle is not just about the election. This is about preserving Americans’ faith in our courts and upholding the rule of law.

In a hotly contested Democratic primary, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a two-term incumbent representing New York’s 16th Congressional District, is facing a stiff challenge from George Latimer, the Westchester County Executive. Sparks flew as the candidates debated each other, with sharp exchanges on the war in Gaza, fighting crime and their approaches to government. The outcome of this race may have national implications, because it pits an ultra-progressive Democrat against a centrist and the candidates’ stands on the Israel-Gaza conflict are the major issue in the race.

Four myths about the US economy could cost Joe Biden the election. Here’s the truth: Covid-related supply disruptions and the war in Ukraine, not Biden’s policies, caused inflation. Inflation is no longer sky-high, running about 3.5%. The economy is performing very well, with good growth and low unemployment. Donald Trump was not a “genius” at managing the economy; it grew despite his disastrous policies, not because of them. Trump’s tax cuts and trade wars were expensive, colossal failures. Meanwhile, Biden’s programs are helping to generate strong job growth.

For months, Speaker Mike Johnson and other MAGA House Republicans have blocked President Biden’s request for more aid to Ukraine. Why don’t they want to defend another democracy against Putin’s unprovoked invasion? The sad truth: like Donald Trump, they no longer hold democratic values. Most House Republicans are election deniers, unwilling to accept the results of the popular vote or the transfer of power to the opposing party. They admire strongmen like Putin and seem open to installing one-party rule in the US. After all, if the MAGA Republicans won’t practice democracy at home, why should they defend it abroad?

US deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine have fallen by two-thirds since last summer. So Ukraine’s prospects will be grim if Congress does not authorize new aid soon. By spring the Russians will break through in some places, and by the summer, Ukraine’s army will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point Ukraine’s front will collapse, and the Russians will take big chunks of the country. After subduing Ukraine, Putin will eventually move against the Baltic States and Poland.

Far-right politicians like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor-Greene claim that American aid to Ukraine creates a huge strain on the Federal budget, which prevents the US from addressing problems on the southern border. They are simply wrong. US aid to Ukraine has been less than 1% of the total Federal budget and only 4% of defense spending. Still, America provides the lion’s share of military equipment. If Congress doesn’t approve more US aid—soon--Ukraine’s prospects will be grim.

Georgia’s political make-up has changed dramatically since 2000, as large numbers of African Americans and other minorities migrated to the state. Half of all new voters are Black, and Georgia has turned from deep red into a battleground state. The 2020 election was a political earthquake; Georgians voted for Joe Biden and elected two Democrats as Senators. But the election triggered a sharp backlash. The state legislature rushed through a law designed to make voting harder for minority citizens and city dwellers, who are mostly Democrats.

Turkish President Erdogan has shown other would-be autocrats how to undermine a democracy. Erdogan conducted a massive purge of government employees, attacking them as the “deep state”, to eliminate civil servants who opposed his policies. As secular Turks turned against Erdogan, because of his authoritarian behavior and corruption, he has increasingly courted the religious right to hang onto power. Although Turkey is an important member of NATO, Erdogan has not been a reliable ally. And Donald Trump has declared himself “a big fan” of Erdogan.

Western observers used to consider Turkey an encouraging example that a nation could be Muslim and democratic. But President Erdogan has turned a secular democracy into an autocratic regime dominated by the religious right. He has muzzled the independent press and squashed dissent, rigging elections in his favor. Erdogan purged his “enemies” in government, waging war against the “deep state”. He caters to religious conservatives, his “base”, to stay in power. Erdogan has provided a playbook for other would-be strongmen. Donald Trump and his advisors have paid close attention.