Kamala Harris Has Momentum… but Still Faces an Uphill Fight

Aug 20

Will Kamala Harris win this election and become our first female President? The honest answer is that no one can predict the outcome; it’s a toss-up. Harris has defied many observers’ expectations (including mine), and her campaign is off to a very good start. But Harris and her running mate Tim Walz are “the underdog in this race”, as the Vice President said at her kick-off rally in Philadelphia.

Many voters are angry about inflation and worried about immigration, and they blame the Biden administration, fairly or unfairly, for exacerbating both situations. And Harris’ historic candidacy as a mixed-race woman cuts two ways, inspiring some voters and alienating others.

Still, Harris has made some astute moves, selecting Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as her VP candidate and moving to the center on contentious issues like fracking. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has suffered from a series of unforced errors, like picking J.D. Vance and attacking Harris… because she considers herself Black?

Harris has “brought back the joy” to politics, as Walz said. Harris is drawing large, enthusiastic crowds of voters, and she is talking about a forward-looking vision for the country. Trump is all doom and gloom, conjuring up a dystopian picture of an America plagued by soaring crime, violent immigrants and a failing economy…which exists only in his head. And Trump is spending more time on the golf course than on the campaign trail.

A Stunning Reversal of Fortune

Kamala Harris has completely changed the dynamics of the race and turned the tables on Donald Trump, to such an extent that the Whiner-in-Chief has complained that it is “unfair” that the Democrats forced President Joe Biden to step aside.

Through intensive lobbying and phone calls, Harris quickly obtained the support of most delegates to the Democratic convention—which was not a foregone conclusion. Furthermore, Harris is generating excitement among key segments such as young voters and Black voters, where Joe Biden had lost ground, as well as women in general and Black women in particular.

Democrats are now looking forward to their convention as a celebration of a relatively youthful ticket, rather than “sitting shiva for four days”, as James Carville lamented before Biden left the race. Harris has closed the gap with Trump in most battleground states and on a national basis, according to The New York Times/Siena poll and other respected surveys.

That is a remarkable turnaround from Biden’s dire situation. The President trailed Trump by five or more points in several key states and nine points in Nevada, which used to be reliably Democratic. Democrats were panicking about losing the House as well as the Senate, because of Biden’s negative coattails. Now, Democrats are hopeful and energized.

Harris has also raised an astounding amount, over $300 million, in the short time since she became the candidate for President. That’s important, because fundraising is a good indicator of voters’ enthusiasm. Most of those funds came from small donors. If they contribute money, they will vote for Harris. Large donors have signaled that they are back on board, too.

Still A Close Election

Democrats now have a fighting chance, but they should beware the dangers of overconfidence. This will likely be a very tight race. Harris and Trump are essentially tied in the seven battleground states, and in most cases, the poll results are within the margin of error. In other words, the vote in a particular state could go either way.

For many young Americans, and people of color, Harris’ candidacy is inspiring. But in some respects, the Democrats are rolling the dice by asking voters to choose a Black woman, and a liberal Californian to boot, as their next leader. It’s a fair guess that Harris will not appeal to large swaths of white, blue-collar men, many of whom have already drifted away from the Democratic Party.

And how will Harris perform with other important segments, such as Black men, Latino men and Latino women? Biden had lost ground with some Black men, although most remained in his camp, and his support among Hispanics had eroded considerably, because of inflation and immigration.

Challenges with Black Men and Latinos

Harris has not been popular with some Black men, because she was a tough prosecutor who sent many African Americans to jail and because she is married to a white man. However, Donald Trump may have helped Harris win more support from Black men, with his racist comments questioning whether she was Black and calling her “dumb”. Trump’s attacks may backfire. It is one thing for a Black man to harbor doubts about Harris; it is another for a white guy to denigrate a sister.

Latinos, the largest minority group, represent almost 20% of potential voters, and they are crucial constituencies in battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada. They will look for concrete proposals from Harris on how the government would control the border and ease the impact of inflation on them.

Many Hispanics are blue-collar and lower-income, and they have felt the impact of higher prices acutely. Like most Americans, they favor a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US, but they also want the border to be secure.

Playing Offense on Immigration

Harris has adopted a good strategy on the immigration issue. This is critical, because it is a top issue for voters and Republicans are attacking her—unfairly—as the “border czar” and blaming her for the problems on the border. In fact, Harris was assigned a limited, carefully defined role on immigration issues: how to craft long-term solutions for reducing immigration from Central America.

On the campaign trail, Harris has vowed to tighten security at the border by hiring more patrol officers (not by building a wall, which would be a waste of money). Harris has also emphasized that President Biden and Democrats in Congress supported a tough bill on border security that had bipartisan support and was going to be passed… until Trump torpedoed it in the Senate, so that he could use immigration as an election issue.

Harris and Walz should hammer home these two themes during their campaign. They should also point out that immigrants do not cause large amounts of crime. In fact, immigrants have lower rates of crime than native-born Americans do. That makes sense, of course; the last thing an immigrant wants is problems with the police, which could lead to deportation.

A Thorny Issue: Inflation

One of Donald Trump’s greatest con jobs has been convincing voters that he did an outstanding job on managing the economy and that Biden’s spending programs were the main cause for inflation. Both claims are false, as we last discussed in April 2024 Four Myths About the Economy That Could Cost Biden the Election. Nonetheless, voters give Democrats low marks on these two issues; Harris must address their concerns. Harris should also adopt centrist positions, rather than cater to progressives, on these issues.

Last week Harris unveiled several proposals on the economy that addressed the high cost of living. On the positive side, Harris showed that she was sensitive to voters’ concerns, and some of her ideas are compelling. However, certain suggestions are dubious on the merits and provide ammunition for the Republican attack machine.

Harris proposed restoring a generous, $2,500 “child tax credit” to be paid in monthly installments—basically a cash payment to help families with young children. Harris added a twist: a $6,000 payment for families having their first child. The price tag for this initiative could be high, but this is a very sound policy.

The Biden Administration pushed through a temporary, expanded version of the child tax credit during the Covid pandemic, and this initiative cut the poverty rate for children by 50%. Unfortunately, the program was not extended because of Republican opposition, and the child poverty rate shot back up to its previous level.

Harris made another attractive proposal: providing first-time homebuyers with $25,000 to help them make a down payment. Many young Americans are having great difficulty buying a home. The root causes are the lack of new construction (a local issue) and high mortgage rates, and a President cannot do much about either. But voters would surely appreciate some direct assistance from the Federal government.

Unfortunately, Harris also put forth two proposals that could cause her trouble. Harris attacked grocery chains for price gouging, and she proposed setting price caps on food items. The reality is that the grocery industry is a high-volume, low-margin business. Does Harris intend to cap the grocery chains’ prices…or go after the food producers? It’s not clear.

Harris also suggested capping all Americans’ out-of-pocket cost for prescription drugs at $2,000. That proposal also sounds like price controls, and such a program would be expensive.

Price controls have not worked well for the U.S. economy. Ironically, a Republican President, Richard Nixon, tried to impose price controls to subdue inflation in the 1970s, and they caused significant distortions in the economy.

These two proposals expose Harris to Republican claims that she is a leftist who does not believe in a free economy. With his usual blend of subtlety and accuracy, Trump promptly called Harris’ economic proposals “communist”. That is an absurd claim, of course, but Harris should drop these two ideas.

Is Trump Afraid of Harris?

Trump may be intimidated by Harris, especially because she is a former prosecutor. In one encouraging sign, Trump has not come up with a good nickname for Harris. “Crazy Kamala” does not work, since Harris is obviously not nuts. It’s worth remembering that Trump also never developed an effective moniker for Nancy Pelosi, another tough woman who stood up to him.

Trump also tried to get out of debating Harris, until he faced too much blowback and charges of being “weak”.

Who knows? Maybe the bully is getting cold feet. We look forward to his debate with Harris….

The Wall Street Democrat

Ryan O’Connell