Biden Passes the Baton…Can Harris Win the Race?
We are thrilled and relieved that President Joe Biden has finally stepped aside. However, we wish that he had not endorsed Kamala Harris. We would have preferred an open convention, allowing the new generation of Democratic leaders to compete for the nomination. We recognize that time is short, but the contest would have been exciting and energized Democrats.
Our Ideal Candidates: Whitmer and Shapiro
The dream ticket would have been Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), in our opinion, although there were several other plausible contenders. The Democrats’ odds of winning the election would have improved with a governor like Whitmer. The governor is not closely associated with Biden's policies; she would have marked a fresh start for the Democrats. Whitmer is smart, tough, and pragmatic, and she is popular in a state that is a must-win for the Democrats. The governor has a keen sense of humor and performs very well on television.
However, Whitmer has reportedly said, privately, that she will support Harris. Shapiro has already endorsed Harris, so he won't challenge her, either. Press reports indicate that major donors are lining up behind Harris, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi has endorsed her candidacy. So the vice president seems likely to lock up the nomination.
Harris: Pros and Cons
We hope that Harris has improved as a candidate and learned from the mistakes in her failed presidential campaign in 2020.
There are other question marks about Harris. The vice president has had extremely high turnover among her office staff, which raises serious questions about her management capabilities. She is generally not a compelling public speaker. Harris tends to speak in platitudes and get tripped up in her own words.
On the positive side, Harris is very bright, relatively young (59) and telegenic. The vice president will undoubtedly bring a lot of energy to the campaign. As a former Attorney General, she may be a formidable debate adversary for Donald Trump.
Harris might generate more support from some key segments that have soured on Biden—young voters and African American voters—and she may appeal to moderate Republican women.
Vice-President Kamala Harris/Getty Images
A Roll of the Dice?
However, the Democrats may be rolling the dice by nominating a woman who is part Black and part Asian, particularly given all the racism and xenophobia that Trump has stirred up among the electorate. For many Americans, Barack Obama’s election as the first Black president was a source of great pride. But his election also created a vicious, racist backlash that helped to trigger the MAGA movement.
Trump Is Still Favored… But Not Invincible
The polls indicate that Harris has a slightly better chance of beating Trump than Biden, but it's not material. Harris’ favorability ratings are somewhat lower than Biden’s. Trump is still favored to win, both nationally and in most battleground states. That could change, of course, if Harris runs a strong campaign. Still, Harris faces an uphill battle at this point.
But Democrats should not despair. Donald Trump is neither invincible nor a very strong candidate. Many Americans despise him and simply want a reasonable alternative, and Harris is no radical. Trump’s 92-minute-long acceptance speech at the Republican Convention was a dark, rambling mess. Trump described a wretched, despairing country that exists only in his own troubled mind, and he frequently repeated himself. Trump has made no attempt to soften his grim message or appeal to a broader group of voters.
The Trap of Identity Politics
Biden may have endorsed Harris because he was concerned about the logistical challenges facing the Democrats, with only 100-odd days before the election, and he wanted to avoid the uncertainty of an open competition. Those are legitimate concerns.
However, we also wonder whether Biden may have been swayed by concerns about identity politics. Biden may have feared that he would alienate women and Black voters if he did not endorse Harris.
That is timid, defensive thinking. Democrats must look forward. Many Americans are turned off by the Democrats' excessive focus on identity politics. If Harris becomes the nominee, she must put forth her vision for improving Americans’ lives… and she must appeal to white, working-class voters.
Otherwise, Harris’ place in the history books will be as a vice president.
The Wall Street Democrat