What Will Trump Do If He Wins?

Nov 1

Donald Trump has a good chance of winning the election next week. The Republican Party may win a majority in the Senate, according to polls. Republicans might keep control of the House, although that depends on the outcome of several very tight races.

Trump has stated very clearly what he intends to do if he returns to the White House. Although I don’t usually make predictions in this newsletter, this article will outline what we can expect in a second Trump term—based on what Trump has explicitly promised (or threatened) to do. Think of this as a review of his campaign promises—a dark one, to be sure. Let’s assume that the Republicans gain control of both the House and the Senate, so Trump can carry out his agenda.

At home, Trump will move to establish a de facto dictatorship, by unleashing a two-pronged reign of terror and intimidation. His administration will prosecute his political “enemies” and lock up millions of immigrants in concentration camps.

Trump will end or sabotage President Joe Biden’s initiatives to shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. We will lose four more years of the dwindling time left to avert catastrophic climate change. The US will forfeit its chance to become competitive in solar and wind systems, as well as electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. The Chinese will dominate the global market for all those products for years to come.

The US economy will stagnant because of Trump’s policies: mass deportations of workers, abandoning green energy and EVs, and disruptive tariffs. Rampant cronyism and corruption will also be a drag on the economy, as businessmen lobby to get special treatment on tariffs.

Abroad, Trump will abandon Ukraine, allowing Vladimir Putin to win the war, and dismantle the NATO alliance. This will be a green light for Xi Jinping of China to invade or otherwise take over Taiwan. The US will lose its role of global leader, as its allies conclude they must reach an accommodation with Russia or China. Let’s look into each topic more deeply.

Prosecuting Political Opponents

Trump will launch prosecutions of leading Democrats and government officials, his “enemies from within”. Trump is not just seeking revenge. His real goal is to weaken or destroy the opposition party by decapitating its leadership.

Trump has announced a list of high-profile targets:

Joe Biden and the “Biden Crime Family”

Kamala Harris

Barack Obama

Nancy Pelosi

Adam Schiff

Jack Smith, special counsel

Mark Milley, former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Trump will probably add others to the list as he pursues his “retribution”. For example, Trump has suggested that he might also go after state prosecutors, which could include Alvin Bragg and Letitia James in New York and Fanni Willis in Georgia.

Trump was outraged that Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr, who served as Attorney General during his first term, refused to prosecute his political opponents—despite his frequent demands to do that. This time, Trump will make sure that the AG is his consigliere, willing to do whatever the boss says.

What crimes will Trump’s AG accuse them of? As in any autocracy, that won’t really matter. The Department of Justice will come up with some trumped-up charges.

Even if the prosecutions fail, they will cost the defendants a fortune in legal fees. If Trump can’t jail his enemies, at least he can bankrupt them—a long-time Trump litigation strategy.

Muzzling the Press

Trump has talked about reviewing the broadcast licenses for news outlets he considers hostile. Trump might also borrow a page from the playbook used by Putin, ordering the IRS to start tax audits of the New York Times and other newspapers. Trump could copy other autocrats, like Viktor Orban of Hungary, by pressuring companies not to place ads with “unfriendly” publications.

And if you have any doubts on this point, the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times have already shown how quickly independent newspapers can start to self-censor themselves.

Concentration Camps and Mass Deportations

The core promise of Trump’s campaign is that he will deport 20-25 million “illegal immigrants”. First, Trump will build a network of detention camps (i.e., concentration camps) to house the people caught up in his dragnet, before they are shipped abroad.

How does Trump come up with his 20-25 million target? The current estimate for undocumented immigrants is 11-12 million, only half that number. Here’s one possibility: Trump wants to end birthright citizenship, even though legal scholars consider that right embedded in the Constitution via the Fourteenth Amendment. Trump may intend to deport the children of undocumented immigrants, although they were born in the US and they are American citizens.

Deploying Troops Inside the US

Trump plans to use Homeland Security agents and National Guard units (contributed by Republican governors) to round up illegal aliens (and those who look like illegal aliens). Trump has also mused about using the US military “if necessary”. His Project 2025 minions have been cooking up legal theories to circumvent the Posse Comitatus Act, which generally prohibits deploying Federal troops within the US.

This will be a massive, sweeping dragnet, with house-to-house searches and extraordinary violations of due process and civil rights. After all, 20-25 million people represent almost 8% of the American population, or one out of every 12 inhabitants.

Civil rights and immigrant advocacy groups will undoubtedly file lawsuits. They might be able to stop or slow down the process. But Trump might simply bulldoze ahead, while his Justice Department fights the lawsuits.

Wreaking Havoc on the Economy

In a worst-case scenario, Trump might deploy National Guard units from Red states to hunt down illegal immigrants in Blue States like New York. After all, that is where many undocumented immigrants live. In that case, what would happen if a Blue state governor refused to let the National Guard into his state? Would Trump order the FBI to arrest the governor? That would be a good way to destroy the opposition.

Mass deportations will wreak havoc on the US economy. Immigrants represent 20-25% of the workforce in many key sectors--construction, agriculture, and hospitality. Although most immigrants are legal, undocumented workers are a significant presence in all those industries.

Ending the Fight Against Climate Change

Donald Trump has never understood the dangers of climate change.

The US lost four precious years during Trump’s first Administration. Instead of confronting climate change, Trump forbade government scientists even to use the term, and he eliminated many sensible environmental protection rules.

If Republicans win the House and Senate, Trump will seek to repeal Biden’s programs to stimulate green-energy projects and the manufacture of electric vehicles and batteries in the US. The US will lose another four critical years.

Looking Backwards on the Environment

With his bluster about “Drill, baby, drill!”, Trump is looking backwards, as he tries to boost the coal, natural gas and oil industries. Biden has followed a forward-thinking approach: green-energy industries provide inexpensive power, generate a lot of good jobs, and improve the environment.

And over time, gas-driven cars will become the equivalent of the horse and buggy. In China last year, electric vehicles represented a third of all car sales. Chinese auto manufacturers like EYD are producing stylish EVs with reasonable prices. They are becoming world-class competitors. Detroit is frantically playing catch-up.

If US car companies cannot compete with them, the Chinese will dominate the world market. American auto manufacturers will fade away. The United Auto Workers union leaders know this; that is one reason why they are supporting Harris.

The US Economy Will Stagnate

Donald Trump has never understood the dangers of tariffs.

Trump should change his slogan to “Make America Broke Again”. The US economy will stagnate, or even decline, because of his policies. You can’t deport 8% of the population without causing critical shortages of labor. You can’t slash taxes without pumping up deficits and, eventually, interest rates. You can’t impose stiff tariffs without levying a huge sales tax on US consumers—they, not foreign companies, pay for the tariffs--or starting a global trade war.

Abandoning Ukraine and NATO

Trump has no interest in helping Ukraine, because he does not have democratic values and he admires strongmen like Vladimir Putin. Last summer Trump threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine if he was elected, and many Republicans in the House oppose giving any more support to that beleaguered country.

Ukraine cannot defend itself without US military aid. The EU has provided large amounts of financial assistance, but it does not have our capacity to produce sophisticated weapons. Ukraine will lose the war, and Putin will dictate the terms of surrender. Will Putin be content with the 20% of Ukraine that he has already conquered, or will he take over the whole country? Either way, the West will have lost the most important conflict since World War II, and its enemies will be emboldened.

Donald Trump has never understood how important NATO is to America.

In his first term, Trump wanted to withdraw from NATO several times, but his advisers talked him out of it. This time, Trump will surround himself with lackeys who won’t challenge him. After Trump left office, Congress passed a law prohibiting a President (i.e., Trump) from withdrawing the US from NATO without its consent. However, Trump can effectively destroy NATO by saying, publicly and repeatedly, that he sees no reason to put US troops at risk to protect “deadbeats”.

Without firm US support, NATO cannot serve as a deterrent to Russia. European countries do not have enough troops or weapons.

With Ukraine defeated and NATO in shambles, Vladimir Putin can realize his dream of restoring Russian dominance over Eastern Europe. Outgunned and demoralized, our former allies will have to cut deals with Russia.

A Green Light for China on Taiwan

After the US jettisons Ukraine and its NATO allies, Taiwan and other Asian nations will see the handwriting on the wall. “America First” means that they cannot count on the US military to help them in a war with China. For President Xi Jinping, this will be a green light for China to seize Taiwan, either through a blockade or an outright invasion. Japan, Korea and other US allies in Asia will realize that they must kowtow to Beijing.

America will stand alone, as it faces a powerful alliance: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. But don’t worry: Trump will make deals with all of them.

Unless, of course, Americans choose Kamala Harris as their next President.

The Wall Street Democrat

Ryan O’Connell