Will Black and Latino Voters Come Through for Harris?
Kamala Harris is running an energetic, creative campaign, but warning lights are flashing. The race is a toss-up, despite Donald Trump’s increasingly bizarre behavior and wacko proposals on tariffs and taxes. Harris’ poll numbers are lower than Hillary Clinton’s were in late 2016. And Harris has less support than Joe Biden did in 2020 from two key Democratic constituencies —Latino and Black voters.
No one can predict how this contest will turn out, but Election Night could be an emotional rollercoaster for Democrats, scarier than Halloween, as the swing states report their results.
Underperforming Hillary Clinton?
On the eve of the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by about 3-4%, both nationally and in most battleground states. However, Clinton’s lead was within the polling margins of error, so that race was a toss-up, too. Furthermore, the polls underestimated Trump’s support, because many voters were reluctant to admit that they would vote for him.
Harris is locked in a statistical tie with Trump, on a national basis and in most of the seven battleground states. As before, the margin of error is 3-4%. At this late stage in the race, Harris appears to be underperforming Clinton. Harris may be facing a backlash because she is both a woman and Black, regardless of her qualifications and experience.
It's possible that the polls have become more accurate, because pollsters have fine-tuned their techniques and more voters now openly support Trump. It’s also possible that we will see a last-minute surge for one of the candidates. We will find out in two weeks…
Vice President Kamala Harris/Getty Images
A Decline in Latino Supporters
A clear majority of Hispanics will likely vote for Harris. The Vice President leads Trump by almost 20 points, 56% to 37%. That’s the good news. The other news: Harris polls 5 points lower with Hispanic men and 8 points lower with Hispanic women compared to their support for Joe Biden in 2020. These numbers are based on a recent New York Times/Siena poll of likely Hispanic voters NYT/Siena poll Hispanic voters.
Here’s a poll result that should worry Democrats: Harris holds only a slight lead among Hispanic men versus Trump, 48 to 45%. That is despite Trump’s constant bashing of immigrants, who are predominantly Latino, and his slurs against Mexican migrants (“rapists and murderers”). About 60% of Hispanic Americans are of Mexican origin.
Latino political analysts have suggested an explanation for this puzzling situation. For many Hispanic Americans, when Trump is demonizing immigrants, they feel that he is talking about “other people”, not them. After all, these Latinos think, they work hard, pay their taxes and live here legally, like their fellow citizens. They also share most Americans’ opinions on immigration; they want tighter border controls, as well as a path to citizenship for the 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S.
As a result, when Trump talks about deporting 20-25 million “illegal immigrants”, many Hispanic Americans assume that mass deportations won’t affect them, their families or their friends. That is magical thinking.
Source: NY Times/Siena College poll (October 13, 2024)
Harris has a stronger base with Hispanic women; 60% support the Vice President, compared to 30% for Trump. That may be because most Latinas, like most American women, favor reasonable access to abortion. Many (but not all) are undoubtedly thrilled that a woman, and one of color, is running for President. However, some Latino men might be less enthusiastic about that prospect, as are many blue-collar white men.
Latinos Are Swing Factors in Key States
Latinos are not just a key bloc within the Democratic Party; they have become the largest minority in the U.S. One out of every five Americans is Hispanic. Latinos represent 20-25% of the eligible voters in Arizona and Nevada, and their numbers are becoming more significant in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Since the margin of victory in these states is razor-thin, Harris’ ability to hold onto Latino voters is critical, particularly in Arizona and Nevada.
A Sharp Drop Among Black Male Voters
Harris enjoys overwhelming support among Black voters, with almost 80% intending to vote for her. Nonetheless, Harris faces a significant decline in support from Black men and Black women, compared with Joe Biden in 2020.
The percentage of Black men supporting Harris is 15 points lower, 70% versus 85% for Biden four years ago. Similarly, Harris’ support among Black women is 8 points lower, 83% compared to 91% for Biden. That is surprising, since one would expect African American women to be especially proud that a Black woman is running for President for the first time.
However, we must put these figures in context. Although Trump has attracted more Black voters, his support remains very low, at 15%, based on the NYT/Siena poll of likely Black voters New York Times Siena Poll-Likely Black Voters.
Source: New York Times/Siena College Poll (October 13, 2024)
African Americans are an extremely important constituency within the Democratic Party, partly because they have been so loyal to Democratic candidates. Furthermore, almost 14% of Americans are Black, and African American voters are important factors in five battleground states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Together, Black and Latino Americans represent one-third of the U.S. population.
It’s the Economy, Stupid (And Inflation)
Most Latinos and Black Americans are blue-collar workers, operating on tight budgets, so they have felt the effects of inflation very keenly. Both groups list the economy as their most important issue, and inflation is also among their top five concerns:
Hispanics
Economy
Abortion
Immigration
Candidate's Character
Inflation
Afro Americans
Economy
Abortion
Candidate's Character
Inflation
Immigration
Source: New York Times/Siena College Poll (October 13, 2024)
Many voters may be talking about inflation and the economy at the same time, so the distinction between the two categories could be somewhat misleading. In any event, these issues are clearly top of mind for Black and Latino voters, as they are for many white voters.
The good news for Harris is that both groups of voters list abortion as their #2 issue, and they also consider a candidate’s character to be very important. Those are Trump’s weak points, and Harris is smart to hammer away at them in her rallies and TV interviews.
Trump’s Little Lies on the Economy
Trump has convinced most voters that the economy was stronger under his administration than it is currently and that Biden’s spending policies caused inflation. Both claims are false—not Big Lies, but important Little Lies.
By any objective measure, the economy has performed very well under President Biden, with good growth in jobs and wages and low unemployment. Biden’s investments in infrastructure and “green energy” initiatives have improved the U.S. economy’s long-term prospects.
Inflation soared in 2022 and early 2023, but Covid-related supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine drove the spike in prices. Biden’s Covid relief package helped the US to avoid a sharp recession, and those expenditures contributed only modestly to inflation.
That is the reality. But Biden and his staff committed political malpractice by failing to set the record straight. They let Trump dictate the narrative on the economy and inflation. Now, Harris is burdened by voters’ views on these issues, and it is too late to change their opinions.
Harris’ Response On Inflation
Harris has tried to show that she understands voters’ frustration with higher prices. Her proposal to stop “price gauging” by grocery stores is quite debatable on the merits, as is her idea of giving first-time homebuyers $25,000 to help them make a down payment. But voters reacted favorably to the proposals, which may help Harris a bit in the home stretch.
Meanwhile, Trump is offering a wide range of goodies to voters: no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security payments! Bigger tax cuts for corporations!
By comparison, Harris is a model of restraint.
A Big Lie on Immigration
One of Trump’s biggest Big Lies is that illegal immigrants have caused crime waves across the country. That is a stiff challenge for Harris, because the Biden Administration, albeit with the best of intentions, did allow the border situation to get out of control. Harris has talked tough about immigration, and she has punched back against Trump, emphasizing that he sabotaged the bipartisan bill on tightening border security.
However, Harris, has not said, point-blank, that crime rates are lower for illegal immigrants than for native-born Americans. Harris should also tell voters that immigrants are not driving up housing prices or taking jobs from native-born Americans. In the time remaining, Harris should confront Trump’s lies about immigrants head-on. It’s the right thing to do, and it may win her some more support from Latinos and other voters.
Fingers crossed…
The Wall Street Democrat