Voter Suppression, Deep in the Heart of Texas-Part 1

The demographics of Texas are shifting rapidly, as its Latino population surges and its booming cities draw waves of migrants from other states and countries. Most of the new arrivals are people of color, who lean Democratic. But the political landscape has not reflected these changes. The Republican Party has fought hard to retain its dominant position, using extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression laws.

Between 2010 and 2020, Texas’ population grew by about 14% or four million people, and almost all of them (95%) were people of color, according to Pew Research. The change stemmed half from births and half from people moving to Texas. Fifty percent of the new residents came from other states (particularly California, Florida, and New York), and half from other nations. Mexicans represented 60% of the foreigners who moved to Texas.

The main driver was a surge in the number of Hispanics, who accounted for half of the state’s population growth. By 2022, Latinos slightly outnumbered whites in Texas, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Here is the key takeaway: four out of 10 Texans are Latino.

The number of Black and Asian Texans increased rapidly, too, although from smaller bases. Meanwhile, the white population grew by only 2% in 2010-20.

Source: Pew Research

Growth is Concentrated in The Big (Democratic) Cities 

Furthermore, almost 90% of the population growth has occurred in five major metropolitan areas: Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Rural areas and small towns, which tend to be whiter, either have had little growth or have lost population. Since most Latinos, Blacks and Asians lean Democratic, four of those cities have become solidly blue. The fifth city, Fort Worth, is an evolving political mix, and has essentially become purple.

When Beto O’Rourke ran for governor against Greg Abbott in 2022, he carried Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, as shown in the chart below. Fort Worth voters preferred Abbott to O’Rourke, but in 2020 Joe Biden carried the city by a razor-thin margin. Joe Biden carried the other four cities by wide margins.

Source:  Dallas County Republican Party

The voters in these four cities have mostly elected Democratic or progressive leaders to local offices. The mayors of Austin and Houston are Democrats, while the one in Austin is a progressive independent. On the other hand, in 2023, the mayor of Dallas switched parties, becoming a Republican. Fort Worth’s mayor is also a Republican. 

But the Political Landscape Seems Frozen in Time

Despite these significant population shifts, the distribution of elected officials in the Texas state legislature and congressional delegation remains heavily skewed toward Republicans. Not surprisingly, the Republican Party has retained its dominance, since the state has a unique political culture, and many rural and suburban areas are bastions of conservatism.

There is a strong sense of Texas exceptionalism, shared by Texans of all political persuasions, based on the state’s huge size –it is as large as France—and its history as part of America’s frontier. In fact, Texas was a separate country for ten years, from 1836, when it gained its independence from Mexico, until it joined the United States in 1846. Texans prize the virtues of self-reliance, independence, and grit.

Although these are admirable traits, the nostalgia for the frontier days and virtues cannot obscure the reality that most Texans live in large cities or the adjoining suburbs. They work in a complex economy, with large technological and medical sectors as well as more traditional industries like oil and gas.

In addition, many Texans are evangelical Christians, who are predominantly Republicans. Furthermore, turnout tends to be lower among Latinos and other minorities than among whites, partly because of obstacles to voting that we will discuss below.

Nonetheless, one would have expected Democrats to win a larger share of state and congressional districts as the number of Latino and other minority voting-age citizens increased significantly.

Why hasn’t this happened?

Fighting Demographic Change

The political establishment, seeing the handwriting on the wall in view of the changing demographic trends, has fought tenaciously to retain its hold on power. Republicans have relied on two main techniques to disenfranchise minority voters: gerrymandering and voter suppression laws.

The entrenched party has redrawn election districts on a highly partisan basis to stack the deck against its opponents. Republican lawmakers engaged in very aggressive gerrymandering in 2010 and again in 2021, as described by New York University’s Brennan Center for Law and Justice:

Texas also enacted an extreme partisan gerrymander that insulates Republican rule against voter dissatisfaction. Under the new map, Democrats would have to win 58 percent of the popular vote in order to be favored to carry more than 37 percent of the state’s congressional seats. Put differently, even if Texas turned dark blue, Republicans could hold a two-to-one advantage in the state’s congressional caucus. (www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/dont-mess-texas-voters)

Texas also has a long history of voter suppression and restrictive voting laws. After the 2020 election, its legislature adopted even more stringent laws as it sought to maintain one-party control. We will discuss these measures in Part 2 of this article.  

The Wall Street Democrat