Trump’s Inauguration: “American Carnage” Part 2
At his second inauguration, Donald Trump painted a dark, dystopian picture of our country. The newly installed President echoed many of the themes from his “American Carnage” remarks at his inauguration eight years ago. As before, Trump’s remarks were often harsh, hyper-partisan and divorced from reality.
But this time, Trump unveiled specific, sweeping measures to carry out his campaign promises. Trump will declare two “national emergencies”, one at the southern border and the other in energy, to justify extraordinary (ab)uses of presidential power. Trump is fabricating these two “crises” to appease his base and big donors, while trying to forestall legal challenges.
Trump made an outlandish promise about inflation, pledging to bring prices down. The President also delivered ominous remarks about “expanding our territory”, “taking back” the Panama Canal and renaming the Gulf of Mexico.
Trump’s “vision” for America is remarkably backward-looking and ill-informed. The President apparently believes that deporting illegal immigrants, drilling for more oil, grabbing foreign territories and imposing stiff tariffs will somehow solve our problems. Trump fired up the Republicans in the crowd by chanting “drill, baby, drill”, but that won’t make climate change go away.
This article will focus on Trump’s proposals on immigrants, inflation, energy, and the auto industry. But first, let’s consider the tone of his speech.
An America in “Decline”?
Trump devoted much of his speech to attacking the Federal government in general and the Biden Administration in particular.
This passage will give you a sense of his tone:
“For many years a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from its citizens…We now have a government that cannot manage a simple crisis at home, while at the same time stumbling into a continuing catalogue of catastrophic events abroad. It fails to protect our magnificent law-abiding citizens, but provides sanctuary and protection for dangerous criminals, many from prisons and mental institutions that have illegally entered our country from all over the world.”
This is propaganda, of course, and Trump is a master at it. That is why it is essential to bear witness to the facts.
A Reality Check
Former President Joe Biden made some big mistakes, such as botching the withdrawal from Afghanistan and allowing the border situation to get out of control for over three years. But overall, the Biden team performed very well. They addressed Covid effectively (unlike Trump), stimulated the economy back into a growth mode, and took forceful action to combat climate change. The US’ low unemployment rate and robust economic growth are the envy of the developed world, including China.
And, in sharp contrast to Trump’s first term, no senior official in the Biden administration left office because of a personal scandal.
President Donald Trump/Getty Images
Immigration—The Big Lie
Since he launched his first Presidential campaign, Trump has continually whipped his followers into a frenzy over immigration. Many white Americans are angry/upset/concerned because the percentage of foreign-born residents in the US is 15.6%. That is a record high and up sharply from 11.1% in 2000.
However, our economy has thrived in great part because the US attracts so many immigrants. The US’ demographics are better than Europe’s and China because immigration has fueled our population growth. (White Americans’ birthrates are negative.).
Immigrants have lower crime rates than native-born Americans, and illegal immigrants have even lower crime rates. That’s logical; the last thing an illegal immigrant wants is an encounter with the police. The highly publicized murders by a few illegal immigrants are the exception to the rule.
In his last year as President, Biden finally took a tougher stand on immigration, and illegal border crossings are now far below their level during Trump’s first term. The situation at the border has stabilized; there is no crisis now.
Deploying Troops Inside the US
Nonetheless, Trump said he would declare a national emergency at the southern border. The US will begin returning “millions and millions” of criminal aliens to their home countries. Trump will send “troops” to the southern border to “repel the disastrous invasion of our country”.
Trump is invoking this supposed invasion to justify stationing troops at the border and to circumvent the Posse Comitatus Act, which generally bans such deployments within the US. Using Federal troops on domestic soil would be a major break with our history and our democratic traditions.
Trump’s Project 2025 brain trust has come up with additional strategies to support massive sweeps of illegal immigrants in our cities. The President will designate foreign drug cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations”. These organizations are typically large, armed groups like Al Qaeda or Hezbollah, and they often are funded by countries, such as Iran.
However, the Mexican and Colombian governments do not support the drug cartels. They have fought them.
A Looming Assault on Sanctuary Cities
Trump will also invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 and direct the Federal government to “use the full and immense power of federal and state law enforcement to eliminate the presence of all foreign gang criminal networks [in] our cities and inner cities”. The Trump Administration will probably use the Alien Act as a cudgel to force sanctuary cities in Blue states to help the Feds round up illegal aliens.
Trump intends to unleash huge dragnets and a wave of terror among immigrants. After all, many “immigrant” families are mixed; some members are undocumented and others, children or spouses, are US citizens.
These unprecedented moves will undoubtedly face legal challenges from state and local officials in Blue states. Red states like Texas have enthusiastically offered to cooperate.
Rash Promises on Oil and Inflation
Trump next turned to inflation, blaming Biden’s massive overspending and escalating energy prices. The President said he would therefore declare a national emergency on energy, chanting, “we will drill, baby, drill”.
But the Biden Administration’s Covid relief bill had only a modest impact on inflation. The main drivers of inflation were Covid-related supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine, which increased prices for oil and gas. The war disrupted Ukraine’s production and led Europe to slash its imports of Russian oil and gas.
Meanwhile, under Biden the US became the world’s largest oil producer and natural gas exporter. Energy prices did not rise because of any lack of production in the US. That’s a myth. Furthermore, the rapid increase in solar and wind energy---thanks in part to Biden’s green energy initiatives—provides a cheaper, cleaner source of power than fossil fuels.
No matter. Trump made a rash promise, claiming that he would bring prices down, by encouraging more oil and gas production. The President added the US would become a rich nation again by tapping the “liquid gold at our feet”.
But global markets determine the prices for oil and gas. Presidents do not have much impact on market prices. And even if prices did rise, energy companies might get rich, but that would not affect many Americans. Trump is conflating a key group of his donors with regular citizens.
In any event, Trump may come to regret his promise to cut energy prices. Voters might be angry if he fails to deliver on that pledge.
Picking the Wrong Target: EVs
Trump boasted that he would revoke “the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry”. Once again, Trump is looking in the rear-view mirror, and he does not understand the dynamics of the car industry. To survive long-term, American auto manufacturers must be competitive in the EV market. Otherwise, they could go the way of the do-do bird.
That is why the Biden Administration provided tax incentives (not mandates) for consumers to buy EVs. The Administration also provided funding to build charging stations and took other measures to encourage a shift to EVs.
Meanwhile, Chinese car companies dominate their domestic market and the global market for EVs. The Chinese car market is the largest in the world; last year, 50% of the autos sold there were EVs. After years of investing in EV technology, the Chinese are producing well-designed cars at attractive prices. They are gaining market share at home and abroad. Ford and GM do not have much time to catch up.
If Trump tries to stop the shift to EVs, he will endanger the US auto industry, rather than save it.
Trump claimed that “our golden age has just begun”. But the President does not seem to realize that we live in the 21st Century, not the 19th Century.
The Wall Street Democrat