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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Letter from Istanbul

On a recent trip we were struck by the profound differences between Greece and Turkey. Greece is a blend of European and Middle Eastern cultures. Turkey is a Middle Eastern country that happens to share a border with Europe. The frontier between the two nations has marked the fault line between the Christian and Muslim worlds for centuries; religion plays a key role in both countries’ cultures. Under President Erdogan, Turkey has become more overtly religious and conservative. Now, half of the women in Istanbul wear head scarves.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

It’s Time for Joe Biden to Pass the Torch

President Joe Biden seems hellbent on running for re-election, despite abysmal poll numbers. But he should step aside and let younger Democratic leaders compete for the nomination. Several governors, such as Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear and others could be strong candidates. Despite his strong record as President, Biden faces two huge obstacles: voters think he is too old and has mismanaged the economy (because of high inflation). At this point, changing voters’ perceptions on these issues could be Mission Impossible for Biden.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Donald Trump Faces His Day of Reckoning, At Last

The latest indictment of Donald Trump is the Big One for the former president, and it lays out a damning case against him. The prosecutors show in detail how Trump conspired to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Trump faces a high risk of being convicted and imprisoned if he is tried. The prosecutors anticipated that Trump would defend his actions as “free speech,” and they demonstrate that he crossed the line into criminal behavior. However, this case might not be brought to trial before the 2024 presidential contest is decided, and Trump has a good change of winning re-election. Still, this indictment might be the last straw for the 25% of Republicans who do not worship Trump, so some of them might consider voting for Joe Biden.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Surprise!  The Supreme Court Votes in Favor of Democracy (Part 2)

In Harper v. Moore the Supreme Court completely rejected the independent state legislature theory, which could have led to chaos in the 2024 Presidential election. Under this crackpot notion, state legislatures would have unfettered power to set the rules for voting and their actions would not be subject to oversight by state courts. Far-right Republicans would probably have used this theory to lobby state lawmakers to ignore the popular vote and create alternative slates of Presidential electors in 2024.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Surprise!  The Supreme Court Votes in Favor of Democracy (Part 1)

In two major decisions, the U.S. Supreme Court supported voting rights for black Americans and rejected a radical legal theory that could have wreaked havoc with the 2024 Presidential election. The first decision, Allen v. Milligan, came as a pleasant surprise, given this Court’s previous hostility to voting rights. The second ruling, Harper v. Moore, was a relief; American democracy dodged a bullet. Under the so-called “independent state legislature theory” proposed in that case, state lawmakers would have had absolute authority to dictate how elections are conducted, without any oversight or review by state courts.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Playing Russian Roulette Over the Debt Ceiling

Republicans’ threat to force the U.S. government to default on its debt, so they can get massive spending cuts, is extortion. Democrats don’t use such scorched-earth tactics. The Republicans are playing with fire. A default of just a few weeks could push unemployment to 8% from 3.4% and cost eight million jobs. The Republicans are not really interested in reducing the deficit. If they were serious about doing that, they would repeal Donald Trump’s useless tax cuts. They would not try to eliminate badly needed funding for the IRS.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Latinos Still Lean Heavily Democratic

Latinos overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. Sixty percent say the Democrats represent them well, compared to 34% for Republicans. Republicans have a serious image problem with Hispanics, with two-thirds saying the Republican Party does not really care about them. Democrats’ approach to Immigration attracts Latinos, of course, but most Hispanics also share Democratic positions on abortion and gun control. However, Cubans are a distinct group; about 60% lean Republican.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Why Are Banks Failing Again? Part 2

Bank runs are terrifying because they can spread like wildfire, even to sound institutions. As Silicon Valley Bank teetered, the contagion spread to First Republic Bank, a stronger, more diversified company. A consortium of mega-banks had to shore up First Republic with $30 billion of funding. To avoid more bank runs, Congress should raise the deposit insurance limit to $1 million; forget the misleading talk about “bailing out rich depositors.” Congress should reimpose strict rules on regional banks with assets of $100 billion or more. The Federal Reserve should require them to undergo tough annual stress tests.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Why Are Banks Failing Again? Part 1

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed mostly because its management rolled the dice and did not hedge its bond portfolio. When the bank took big losses on the bonds, scaring investors, that triggered a bank run. But the bank’s failure is also a wake-up call for the industry. Bank runs can happen at warp speed now because of social media. It was a mistake to loosen the rules for regional banks in 2018. Congress should re-impose stricter standards on banks with $100 billion or more of assets. SVB’s bank examiners dropped the ball, and the Fed must tighten up its supervision of regional banks.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Latinos Are Emerging As a Swing Factor in U.S. Politics

Did you know that one in five Americans is Latino? And that one in six eligible voters in Hispanic? Latinos, now the second-largest ethnic group in the U.S., are becoming a major force in national politics and a dominant factor in several key states.

Hispanics represent 20% of more of eligible voters in six states, including Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. As Latinos have moved to regions throughout the country, they have also become an important factor in “battleground” states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

What If Putin Wins the War in Ukraine? Part 2

Vladimir Putin’s threats of deploying nuclear weapons have intimidated the US and NATO. The West has limited Ukraine’s ability to strike at military bases in Russia. This is a recipe for defeat in Ukraine, especially since Western sanctions have not hurt Russia’s ability to sell oil and gas or get weapons. The US and NATO should equip Ukraine with tanks and jet fighters, and quickly.

Critics argue that Ukraine must negotiate with Putin to avoid further bloodshed. But that is wishful thinking. Appeasement won’t work.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

What If Putin Wins the War in Ukraine?   Part 1

Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other far-right Republicans have called for the US to cut off all aid to Ukraine and force its government to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. They claim that US cannot afford to help Ukraine and that America’s national security is not at stake. But the US’ assistance to Ukraine is less than 1% of the Federal budget. And Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union and dominate all of Eastern Europe. Conquering Ukraine would be only the first step in his campaign to restore Russian rule over the Baltic States, Poland and other democracies. Instead of reducing its aid, the US should equip Ukraine with tanks and jet fighters as soon as possible.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Barbarians in the House

Kevin McCarthy has let radical Republicans seize control of the House of Representatives. This has set the stage for a dangerous standoff on raising the US debt ceiling. Ultra-MAGA Republicans have vowed not to raise the debt ceiling, in order to force the Biden administration to slash Social Security and Medicare payments. If they carry out their threat, the government could default on its debt this summer. That would wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.

The deficit is too high, but the best way to reduce it is through reasonable increases in tax revenues. How? By rolling back the Trump tax cuts and giving the IRS the funds it needs to conduct its operations properly and catch tax cheats.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Why New York Democrats Got Crushed in the Midterms-Part 2

It is astounding that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul beat Lee Zeldin by just five points, in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2007.

As NY’s first female governor, Hochul should have energized women and independent voters. Zeldin’s hard-right MAGA views should have alienated many of them. But Hochul ran an uninspiring campaign. Zeldin hit the stump hard, blaming Democrats’ bail reform laws for higher crime rates and attacking the Manhattan D.A., who is Black, as soft on crime.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Why New York Democrats Got Crushed in the Midterms-Part 1

New York is supposed to be one of the bluest states in the Union. But Republicans flipped four seats in Congress, and Governor Kathy Hochul’s race was a nail-biter for Democrats.

Three key factors probably played a big role. State Democrats’ attempt to gerrymander election districts backfired. Republicans turned the election into a referendum on crime, while Democrats fumbled badly on that issue. Hochul ran a lackluster campaign, so Democratic candidates did not have coattails to ride on.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Democrats Should Punch Back on Inflation

Republicans blame Biden’s spending programs for causing inflation. But other factors have been more important: the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, Covid-related supply chain disruptions, and the Federal Reserve Bank’s slow response. Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package helped millions of Americans avoid poverty and it averted a deep recession. Impartial observers like Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve chairman, said Biden made the right policy decision, even though his Covid package contributed “somewhat” to inflation.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Rep. Joaquin Castro, EJ Dionne Warn About Voter Suppression (Forum Replay)

What are the trends in voter suppression, and what can you do to help protect voting rights?

Listen to a panel of experts who discussed these critical topics on September 12, 2022, at a forum sponsored by ClassACT HR73.

The speakers included: E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post; Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX); Michael Waldman of NYU’s Brennan Center; Sam Spital, Litigation Head, NAACP Legal Defense Fund; and Cecile Scoon, President of the League of Women Voters of Florida.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Join Our Forum on Voter Suppression: A Cancer in Our Body Politic

Please join me on Monday, September 12, 7-8:30 pm, for an important forum: “Voter Suppression: A Cancer in Our Body Politic”. ClassACT HR 73 will host this virtual forum.

You can register for the forum at: https://www.classacthr73.org/event-4886655

EJ Dionne, Washington Post columnist, will moderate the forum, which will bring together prominent activists and experts concerned with election integrity to discuss how repressing voting threatens our democracy.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Biden Threads the Needle on Student Loans

President Joe Biden has taken a radical approach to tackling the student loan crisis, and that’s not a compliment. Still, Biden resisted progressives’ most extreme demands and adopted a middle course. He has skewed his program toward middle-class and working-class Americans, rather than highly paid professionals. Biden will impose an income test and provide more debt relief for lower-income Americans. He has also proposed common-sense changes that will make life easier for all Federal student loan borrowers in the future.

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Ryan O’Connell Ryan O’Connell

Manchin is Worried About Inflation…But Not His Fellow Democrats

Sen. Joe Manchin has once again torpedoed the Biden Administration’s latest attempt to pass a bill fighting climate change and to raise taxes on wealthy Americans and corporations. Manchin claims to oppose the bill because it would add to inflation. That is a bogus rationale, but Republicans will quote Manchin as they try to blame Biden for causing inflation. In fact, promoting alternative energy programs like electric vehicles should reduce pressure on gasoline prices and raising taxes is anti-inflationary. The Democrats have to get out the message that their policies are helping Americans, not causing higher prices.

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