It’s Time for Joe Biden to Pass the Torch

Justice Ruth Bader Ginzburg stayed on the Supreme Court too long, which allowed her opponents to wreak havoc on her legacy. This is a cautionary tale for President Joe Biden, and this time, the stakes are even higher.

If Donald Trump became President again, he could destroy American democracy and set our country on a path of permanent decline. That would be great news for Russia and China… and grim for those of us who want our country to remain prosperous and free.

Biden seems hellbent on running for re-election, despite abysmal poll numbers. One out of two Democrats thinks that Biden is too old to serve a second term. Politicians should not follow polls slavishly, or course. But if half of their own party’s members don’t want them to run, they should listen….and pass the torch onto others.

According to a recent New York Times/Siena poll, Trump would beat Biden by healthy margins in five out of six battleground states. In one shocking development, 22% of Black voters indicated they would support Trump. Biden holds only a small lead among nonwhite voters under 45 years old, and he is essentially tied with Trump among voters 18 to 29 years old. Both groups usually skew solidly Democratic.

Dismal Poll Numbers

The NYT/Siena poll presented a bleak picture for Biden. By wide margins, voters think that Biden, rather than Trump, is too old to lead the country and does not have the mental sharpness to serve as President. They even give Trump a slight edge in having the temperament to be President.

Voters also award Trump higher ratings on his ability to manage:

• The economy

• National security

• Immigration

• The Israel-Gaza conflict

You may disagree with these assessments and consider them unfounded or unfair, as this writer does. Still, this is the political reality that the President and other Democratic leaders must face.

Key Hurdles for Biden

The President faces two fundamental problems with voters: his advanced age and the toll that inflation has taken on lower-income voters, including minorities and younger Americans.

Biden will turn 81 years old this month. The rumors about any mental impairment seem to reflect partisan attacks rather than reality, but the optics are often poor. Biden shuffles, and he sometimes garbles words (as he has for decades) or seems to lose his train of thought. Many voters have a legitimate concern that his mental and physical powers might decline during a second term. A large segment of the electorate apparently believes that Biden is already not up to the job.

The irony is that Biden is probably in better shape, mentally and physically, than Trump, who is only three years younger, at age 77. The former president’s public remarks have become even more unhinged lately, as he rails against “Marxists and communists” in referring to Democrats. Voters seem to have forgotten that while President, Trump had difficulty drinking a glass of water or walking down a ramp.

In any case, changing voters’ perceptions on this issue could be Mission Impossible for Biden. This is the most powerful argument for him to step aside and let a younger generation of leaders compete for the Democratic nomination. Several governors might be strong candidates, including Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Andy Beshear (Kentucky), and Gavin Newsom (California), as well as other Democrats.

President Joe Biden/Photo: Getty Images

A Good Track Record on the Economy

Biden and his advisers must be perplexed by the low marks that voters give him on handling the economy. In fact, Biden’s policies have worked very well in all but one respect--inflation, but that requires more discussion.

Voters have forgotten that when Biden took office, the unemployment rate was almost 7%. There was a large risk that the US would plunge into a deep recession, because of the massive disruptions caused by Covid. Voters have also forgotten how badly Trump managed the Covid crisis, which increased the pressure on the economy.

Biden’s Covid relief package helped the US to avoid a harsh recession. And good economic growth enabled the US to replace all the jobs lost during Covid, which was a remarkable achievement; unemployment fell to a historically low level. Because of Biden’s policies, the US economy has outperformed all other major economies, including China’s, in terms of economic growth.

Forward-Looking Programs

The President also instituted crucial, forward-looking initiatives that will benefit the U.S. economy on a long-term basis. Thanks to Biden’s leadership, Congress finally passed long-overdue infrastructure and green energy programs, after Republicans had blocked them for many years.

The US is finally taking action to combat climate change. As President, Trump had praised “beautiful, clean coal” and ordered US agencies not to use the term “climate change”.

It’s The Inflation, Stupid

Yet as the NYT/Siena poll shows, many voters are not giving Biden credit for the remarkably strong U.S. economy. Instead, they say that Trump’s “policies” improved their lives, while Biden’s have not.

Why? Many lower-income workers, and lower middle-class Americans, have suffered from the high inflation of the last two years. They are much more sensitive to higher food and gas prices than affluent Americans, and they feel strapped.

Many minority Americans are blue-collar and live on tight budgets. The rise in inflation may be a major reason why Biden has lost support among some Black Americans and many Latinos, as well as younger Americans generally.

Republicans Hammer Biden on Inflation

Republicans have convinced many voters that Biden’s “big spending” is primarily to blame for inflation. However, that is not accurate.

In hindsight, Biden’s Covid relief package may have been somewhat too large and added some fuel to the inflationary fire. But most economists believe that the main drivers of inflation have been Covid-related supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has caused fuel and grain prices to soar around the globe.

As for Biden’s infrastructure and green-energy programs, those expenditures will be spread out over many years. Furthermore, the green-energy legislation includes tax increases, which are anti-inflationary, and its provisions are helping some Americans to buy cars that do not use gasoline.

Lower Inflation May Not Help Biden

In fact, inflation rate has been falling for several months, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow down consumer and business spending. Economists such as Paul Krugman think that inflation might soon return to a more normal 2%-3% rate. But many voters don’t seem to have noticed the improvement.

And unfortunately for President Biden, the damage to his electoral prospects may not be reversible. If a lower-income American feels pinched by inflation and blames Biden, he or she is not going to feel better simply because prices go up more slowly.

Disappointment Over Student Loans

Many younger voters, particularly Black Americans, are disenchanted with Biden because he did not wipe out their student loans. Unable to pass the requisite legislation in Congress, Biden attempted to launch a sweeping forgiveness program through an executive order. However, that was an overreach, in this writer’s opinion Biden Threads the Needle on Student Loans , and the Supreme Court correctly struck down that initiative.

In any event, many voters burdened by student loans are not giving Biden credit for trying.

Two Myths About the Economy

President Biden’s ability to change voters’ perceptions about his management of the economy is also handicapped by two myths. Most voters believe, erroneously, that the economy performs better under Republican Presidents. This is one of the enduring myths in American politics.

Since the New Deal, however, economic growth has usually been stronger under Democratic Presidents, with rare exceptions. Why? Because Democratic administrations tend to pass programs that increase spending and stimulate the economy. Meanwhile Republicans focus on cutting taxes, regulations and spending. However, those policies have little to no impact on economic growth.

Here’s another myth: the Trump Administration engineered remarkable growth, “the best economy ever”.

The stock market performed well under Trump, particularly in the first year after his election, because of his tax cuts (which caused the deficit to soar). But the real economy chugged along at a normal, not extraordinary, growth rate.

In fact, average job growth and wage growth were higher during President Obama’s last three years than during Trump’s first three years. That’s a fair comparison because it excludes the effects of the Great Recession, for Obama, and Covid, for Trump.

Time to Step Aside

Joe Biden has accomplished a great deal as President. But it’s hard to see how the President can change voters’ highly negative views on his age or his track record on the economy. For the good of his party and his country, Biden should announce that he will not run for re-election. It’s time to allow a new generation of leaders to compete for the Democratic nomination. Let the Republicans be the Grand Old Party, and the Democrats the young, dynamic party.

Otherwise, if the race is between Biden and Trump, there is a serious risk that Trump will win. Trump’s first Administration was chaotic and incompetent. His second would be a descent into tyranny.

The Wall Street Democrat