What If Putin Wins the War in Ukraine? Part 1
As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, President Vladimir Putin is doubling down on his efforts to conquer Ukraine or…simply destroy the country. The Russians have mobilized at least another 300,000 troops, and they are preparing to launch a massive offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, on February 9, 11 ultra-MAGA members of Congress, including luminaries such as Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, introduced a resolution calling for an immediate halt to aid for Ukraine. They claim that the United States cannot afford to support Ukraine and should compel the Ukrainians to start negotiating with the Russians.
Some prominent journalists, such Ross Douthat and Christopher Caldwell in the New York Times, are sounding a similar refrain. They fear that if the US “escalates” the conflict, by giving Ukraine more powerful weapons, Putin might use his nukes. It’s time to be “realistic” and find a compromise, they say, to avoid more suffering and bloodshed.
What would Gaetz, Douthat and the others have said in the first few years of World War II? Would they have criticized President Franklin Roosevelt for helping the United Kingdom and Russia to fight Hitler? After all, that war cost millions of lives, and the Nazis had the upper hand for several years.
Ukraine Needs Tanks and Planes to Win
These neo-isolationists are missing the crux of the matter. If Putin defeats Ukraine, he won’t stop there. Putin’s goal is to recreate the Soviet Union and its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. The Ukrainian war is just the first stage of his campaign.
The Biden Administration has provided an unprecedented amount of assistance to Ukraine, and the President has done a masterful job of rallying our NATO allies. Still, President Volodymr Zelensky is right; the US has not done enough.
So far, America has helped Ukraine to avoid a crushing defeat. But the U.S. has dragged its feet on giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to win, such as tanks and fighter planes. The US and NATO should equip Ukraine with those weapons now, before it is too late.
The “America First” Approach: Head in the Sand
The neo-isolationists make four main arguments:
Aid to Ukraine is a huge drain on the U.S. budget
Our national security is not at stake
We should not risk a nuclear conflict with Russia
We should stop the war to avoid further bloodshed
There are two underlying, unspoken premises: it is not worth defending a far-away democracy, and the Ukrainians’ resistance is futile. They are doomed.
The U.S. Can Easily Afford Aid to Ukraine
The MAGA politicians’ complaints about aid to Ukraine and the U.S.’s deficit are profoundly misleading. In 2022, the U.S. spent $60 billion on Ukraine, split 50/50 between military aid and humanitarian assistance. For fiscal year 2023, the Administration has allocated another $75 billion with a 2/3 split between military and humanitarian assistance.
To put those numbers in context, the Federal budget for fiscal year 2023 is $5.8 trillion, with about $820 billion allocated to the Pentagon. The $75 billion for Ukraine is just 0.9% of the total federal budget and about 6.4% of military expenditures. The Ukraine assistance program is a tiny factor in the $1.2 trillion deficit forecasted for this fiscal year…and hardly a strain on our nation’s finances.
Ukraine: Front Line in the Fight for Europe
The Administration’s critics claim that America does not have any vital national interest in helping Ukraine. It’s strange that they don’t think we should help another democratic nation to defend itself against invasion by a despotic regime. It’s dangerous, too, because they are wishing away two major risks.
Ukraine is the initial step in Putin’s drive to restore the Soviet Union. If Ukraine falls, Putin will move against other East European countries. And if Russia defeats Ukraine (and by extension the U.S.), the Chinese will be encouraged to invade Taiwan.
Putin believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” In Putin’s warped, messianic view of the world, he has been anointed to re-establish the Soviet Union and its domination of virtually all of Eastern Europe.
Putin particularly hates the Ukrainian regime because the country is Slavic, democratic and capitalistic. Even worse, for Putin, Ukrainians generally enjoy higher living standards than Russians. For Putin, Ukraine is a highly inconvenient example, right next door, of a viable alternative to his repressive regime with its lackluster economy.
It’s true that Ukraine is highly corrupt. However, in sharp contrast to Russia, the ruling party does not kill or imprison its political opponents, nor does it muzzle the press. Before the war, its citizens frequently protested in the streets. Unlike countries such as Hungary and Poland, Ukraine is a vibrant democracy, messy but not at all authoritarian. The Kyiv government runs fair elections.
Why is Vladimir Putin Smiling?/Getty Images
A Real Domino Theory
After World War II, Russia directly ruled Ukraine and 14 other nations that “belonged” to the Soviet Union. However, Russia also exercised indirect control of almost all of Eastern Europe, through puppet regimes in Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Russia also exercised enormous influence in Bulgaria and Romania. This was a huge extension of Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, and it only lasted for 45 years. But Vladimir Putin wants to restore this empire.
If Putin conquers Ukraine, he might next gobble up Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s western border that is also not a member of NATO. Then Putin may threaten the Baltic States. These three tiny nations are adjacent to Russia, and they don’t have the resources to defend themselves against such a large adversary.
At some point, Putin might go after a truly big prize: Poland.
If the Russians gained control of Poland, they would acquire huge leverage over Germany, which is adjacent to it. Poland bears the same relationship to Germany that Mexico does to the U.S. The country is a major source of skilled, lower-cost labor, and its factories are closely intertwined with Germany’s industrial base. If a “friendly” Polish government “allowed” Russian troops to be stationed on its border with Germany, Russia could put great pressure on Berlin to follow its bidding.
But Won’t NATO Protect Poland?
Some critics of the U.S.’s support for Ukraine don’t see much of a threat, because Poland and the Baltic States are NATO members. Surely Putin would never dare attack or threaten those countries, they argue. But that may be wishful thinking.
If the Russians defeated Ukraine, despite all the aid from the U.S. and its European allies, NATO’s credibility might be in shreds. Would the Baltic States still expect NATO to defend them? Or would they cave in to the Russians?
After gobbling up the Baltics, Putin could pressure Poland by massing troops on its border. However, Putin would not necessarily have to invade Poland to seize control. If the Poles balked at his demands, Putin could threaten to send in his army and to unleash his nukes. Then, as a “compromise”, Putin could offer not to invade, if the Poles installed a government that met with his approval and adopted policies that he prescribed…such as leaving NATO. After all, that is how the Soviet Union ruled Poland during the Cold War.
Certainly, the Poles seem very worried that they could be in Putin’s crosshairs before long. That is why they started to push the US and other NATO allies to give Ukraine heavier weapons, such as tanks and aircraft, soon after the war broke out. The Poles have no illusions about their neighbor.
We will continue our discussion of the war in Ukraine in Part 2 of this article, which we will publish later this week.
The Wall Street Democrat