Why New York Democrats Got Crushed in the Midterms-Part 2

Dec 1

It is astounding that Gov. Kathy Hochul beat Lee Zeldin by just five points, in a state that has not elected a Republican as governor since 2007. Hochul has the dubious distinction of winning her race by the thinnest margin in 30 years.

This is particularly surprising for two reasons: Hochul is New York’s first female governor, and Lee Zeldin is a hard-core MAGA type. Zeldin opposes abortion rights and most gun safety measures. One would have expected Hochul to generate a lot of enthusiasm among women and independent voters, while Zeldin’s far-right views should have alienated many of them.

However, Hochul ran a low-key, uninspiring campaign, and she did not come up with themes that energized many voters. Zeldin hit the stump hard, and he made rising crime rates the central issue in the campaign. Hochul did not generate excitement that could help other Democratic candidates. Instead, various Democratic luminaries came to New York to bolster her campaign, as it tightened significantly in the last month before election day.

Zeldin’s Skillful Campaign

Although Hochul held the higher office, Zeldin had deeper experience in electoral politics, and his tactics were more effective.

Hochul had a rather thin resume before becoming Governor and little experience running a large campaign. Hochul spent several years as a county clerk in update New York. Afterwards, she served one term in Congress, leaving in 2015. Andrew Cuomo then chose her as his lieutenant governor. That’s not an important role in New York state politics, especially under a domineering figure like Cuomo. Hochul was not well known among voters, particularly those who live in the New York metropolitan area.

Candidates for lieutenant governor in New York are usually in the background during an election; they don’t get much practice running an intense, statewide campaign.

Zeldin was elected to Congress in 2015, so he had been running for re-election every two years. His campaigning skills were polished; Hochul’s were rusty. As he ran for Governor, Zeldin held rallies throughout the state. He even campaigned in New York City, a Democratic stronghold.

Hochul’s Mistakes

Meanwhile, Hochul focused on building a $50 million campaign chest. That was a remarkable achievement, but she spent too much time in closed meetings with potential large donors. Hochul should have been hitting the campaign trail to generate some buzz and publicity. Unlike Zeldin, she did not hold many rallies, so she did not generate much TV coverage. As early as mid-summer, Democratic leaders were fretting that Hochul was not holding enough campaign events, according to press reports.

In another crucial mistake, Hochul did not pay sufficient attention to the emerging issue in the race: crime. Even worse, Hochul initially dismissed voters’ concerns about rising crime rates.

Hochul’s staff fumbled simple details, too, as they tried to reach out to voters. For example, I received three letters from the Hochul campaign that addressed me as “a Hudson Valley resident” and described projects the Governor was backing in that region. That was a nice gesture…but I live in the eastern part of Westchester County, which faces Long Island Sound. The only thing our communities have in common with the Hudson Valley is a lot of water. By the way, Governor, ours is salty, and it has waves.

Zeldin’s Attacks on Bail Reform…and a Black D.A.

Zeldin had a laser-like focus on the increase in crime, blaming Hochul and other Democrats. Zeldin followed the classic Republican playbook on this issue, including “dog whistles” that played on fears of Black Americans and other minorities. Many of Zeldin’s key claims were false, but he succeeded in fanning voters’ concerns about the issue.

Zeldin attacked state Democrats for passing bail reform laws that, he claimed, had allowed hardened criminals to go free. Zeldin criticized Hochul for not revising those laws after she became governor, even though Hochul did negotiate some changes in the laws with legislators last spring.

Zeldin also attacked Alvin Bragg, the progressive Manhattan District Attorney, as soft on crime and “not doing his job”. Zeldin promised that on his first day as governor, he would fire Bragg.

Bail Reform Was Not the Culprit

However, the bail law reforms addressed widespread abuses of the practice that had led to many unnecessary incarcerations. Furthermore, there is no evidence to support the claims that the reforms caused the increase in crime, according to the Brennan Center for Law and Justice at New York University (The Facts On Bail Reform and Crime Rates in New York State, March 22, 2022).

Alvin Bragg was highly qualified for his role as Manhattan District Attorney. A Harvard Law School graduate, Bragg had extensive experience as a prosecutor before becoming D.A.

Here is the dog whistle: Bragg is Black.

By the way, Bragg won a hotly contested election to become D.A., and by a large margin. Zeldin’s promise to fire an elected official simply because he did not like Bragg’s policies had an ominously anti-democratic tone. But then, Zeldin is an acolyte of Donald Trump.

Excessive Fears About Crime

Crime has risen in New York City, unfortunately, but the city remains much safer than in the troubled 70s, 80s and early 90s. To put things in perspective: murders have increased to about 330 in 2022, but that figure is almost 90% below the peak of 2,245 reached in 1990. The murder rate is at the same level as 2009, when the city was recovering from another period of economic contraction, the Great Recession.

Although seven people, tragically, have been killed in the subway system in 2022, that is a tiny fraction of the millions of passengers riding the trains each day.

Still, friends who live in upscale Manhattan neighborhoods have complained to me about being harassed by deranged homeless people or aggressive panhandlers demanding money. Their sense of security has diminished, especially at night. Meanwhile, in depressed parts of Brooklyn and the Bronx, assaults and robberies have risen.

Nonetheless, New York City is hardly a hell-hole. I take the train from my leafy suburb into New York City twice a week and go to various neighborhoods in Manhattan. I ride the subway. I feel quite safe.

Suburban voters on Long Island and Westchester don’t have any cause for alarm. Yet many voters, particularly those living outside the city, seem to think that New York has become very dangerous and crime is “out of control” throughout the state. Fox News and The New York Post have stoked their fears with wildly exaggerated stories about crime in the city.

Eric Adams Did Not Help The Democrats’ Cause

Eric Adams, NYC’s Mayor, has talked endlessly about the city’s crime rate, and he has overstated the extent of the increase. Like Zeldin, the Mayor, a former cop, has blamed the state legislature—controlled by his fellow Democrats--for passing the bail reform laws.

Adams continued to pound that drum during the campaign season. Although Hochul persuaded the legislature to tweak the laws last spring, the Mayor implicitly criticized Hochul for not demanding more drastic revisions. Hochul and other Democrats did not appreciate Adams’ comments. But Zeldin certainly did…and repeated them on the campaign trail. Adams started to tone down his language near the end of the campaign season, but he had already given Zeldin and other Republicans plenty of ammunition.

However, it would not be fair to blame Adams for the Democrats’ losses or Hochul’s relatively thin margin of victory. Adams was correct in pointing out that other Democrats should pay more attention to voters’ fears about crime and address them on the campaign trail. And, after all, Adams was not on the ballot.

Time for Some Soul-Searching

It’s time for New York Democrats to do some serious soul-searching. They abused their dominant position in the state legislature to pass an egregious gerrymandering plan that boomeranged on them. They should leave gerrymandering to the real pros, the Republicans, and take the high road.

Gov. Hochul and other Democratic politicians did not listen to voters’ fears about crime. They did not explain why the bail reform laws were needed…and why the reforms had not wreaked havoc on ordinary citizens.

The ancient Greeks had a word for the Democrats’ attitude going into the midterms: hubris, excessive pride or self-confidence. For a politician, it’s the deadliest sin of all. And, as the Greeks knew, hubris can lead to a fall.

The Wall Street Democrat

Ryan O’Connell