Trump is Following Erdogan’s Playbook for Autocrats-Part 1

Western observers used to consider Turkey an encouraging example that a nation could be Muslim and democratic. But under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country has betrayed those hopes. Instead, Erdogan has turned a secular democracy into an autocratic regime dominated by the religious right.

Erdogan has muzzled the independent press and squashed dissent, effectively rigging elections in his favor. The Turkish leader has conducted a massive purge of his “enemies” in government, waging war against the “deep state”. He has created a cult of personality, using government propaganda. Erdogan caters to religious conservatives, his “base”, relentlessly attacking the separation of mosque and state.

Erdogan has provided a playbook for other would-be strongmen. Donald Trump and his advisors have paid close attention.

Cult of Personality

When my wife and I visited Istanbul in October, we happened to arrive on the weekend that Turks were celebrating the 100th anniversary of the modern, democratic Turkish Republic. The city’s streets were covered with huge banners showing on one side Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the former general who established the republic in 1923, and on the other side, Erdogan.

The message was clear: modern Turkey has had two great leaders, and one is the current President.

As we walked around Taksim Square, Istanbul’s main plaza, we noticed a large, temporary structure. Inside, a government film showcased Turkey’s progress from a poor, defeated country at the end of World War I to a powerful nation that manufactures cars and aircraft and boasts the second-biggest army in NATO.

A Film Starring Erdogan

The production was slick and carefully calibrated. Erdogan has courted religious conservatives assiduously. But early in the film, a female Turkish Air Force pilot took off in a jet. About half of the women in the film did not wear head scarves. A casual observer would think that the government has remained secular under Erdogan.

The film praised Ataturk as the father of modern Turkey. But Erdogan appeared in the 20-minute film so many times that I lost count. This was not the kind of campaign ad one sees in a democracy. This was all-out government propaganda created to foster a cult of personality around Erdogan.

We saw another such pavilion on the Asian side of the city, as we sailed up the Bosporus. We assumed that the film was being shown throughout Istanbul and the country.

Turkish President Erdogan and President Trump/Getty Images

Ataturk’s Legacy: A Secular Democracy

When Ataturk founded the Turkish republic on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, he was determined to bring his country into the modern era and tie it more closely to the West. Ataturk declared that the republic would be a secular state, with the separation of mosque and state a fundamental principle. The new President banned women from wearing the veil, anywhere, and prohibited women serving in government from wearing headscarves.

Ataturk replaced the autocratic Ottoman sultanate with democratic elections. The “father of the Turks” discarded Arabic as the written language, substituting the Roman alphabet. Ataturk’s goal was to improve literacy (an abysmal 3% at the time), because the Roman alphabet was easier to learn, and to orient Turkey more toward Europe. Ataturk succeeded on both fronts. The literacy rate rose rapidly and now stands at 98% for adults.

A History of Coups

Most elements of the republic remained intact until Erdogan came to power, with one important exception. The Turkish army frequently intervened in politics when civilian politicians grew too corrupt or incompetent and mismanaged the economy. Generals frequently staged a coup and ran the government until they righted the ship. Then, remarkably, the generals would turn over the reins to civilians, although often after several years.

This cycle repeated itself numerous times. The public generally supported these interventions because they distrusted the politicians and the economy usually improved on their watch. The army, fiercely secular, also saw itself as a bulwark protecting the separation of mosque and state. Secular Turks in Istanbul and other cities supported the army’s stance, while religious Turks in rural regions and the eastern part of the country were less enthusiastic.

Erdogan’s War on The Press

Erdogan, now 69 years old, has led Turkey for 20 years, first as Prime Minister and then as President. Like Vladimir Putin, Erdogan engineered changes in his country’s constitution that have facilitated his long tenure. The Turkish leader has also become increasingly authoritarian as he clings to power.

Like Viktor Orban, Hungary’s proudly “illiberal” leader, Erdogan has crippled the free press. After an attempted coup in 2016, Erdogan ordered the closure of 160 media outlets, on the bogus claim that they had sympathized with the coup leaders. That year, Turkey enjoyed the dubious distinction of having the highest number of jailed journalists in the world.

Since then, the situation for independent journalists has not improved; they have good reason to fear arrest. As of December 2022, 40 Turkish journalists were behind bars. By comparison, 100 journalists were imprisoned in China, which has 14 times as many people.

Erdogan has forcefully suppressed his critics and intimidated or co-opted most media outlets. Opposition candidates cannot get much airtime on TV or press coverage, so it is difficult for them to reach voters. The President also doles out government largesse to garner votes. Erdogan has effectively rigged elections in his favor using these techniques.

Unlike Orban, however, Erdogan has not yet changed the election rules to stack the deck against his opposition. That might change, particularly since Erdogan won re-election in May 2023 by a narrow margin of 52-48%. Since then, the Turkish President has suggested that he might pursue further changes to the constitution.

In our next article, we will discuss how Erdogan has dismantled Turkey’s secular democracy through other means. Erdogan has purged his “enemies” in government, whom he has attacked as the “deep state” . The Turkish President has tightened his hold on power by siding with the religious right in political disputes. Donald Trump has been impressed.

The Wall Street Democrat