New York Democrats Are Hoisted on Their Own Gerrymandering Petard
New York Democrats’ brazen attempt to gerrymander the electoral maps has blown up in their faces. Their move backfired badly, as maps imposed by the courts pit several Democratic incumbents against each other in newly drawn districts.
In late April, New York State’s highest court threw out the electoral maps for Congressional and State Senate districts that Democrats had rammed through the legislature. The Democratic-controlled legislature rejected maps drawn by an independent redistricting commission (IRC) and substituted its own maps.
The Court of Appeals ruled that the lawmakers ignored the procedures in the State Constitution that required them to consider maps drawn by the IRC and that they abused the map-drawing process through flagrant gerrymandering. The Court then appointed a special master to create new maps. Jonathan Cervas, a post-doctorate fellow at Carnegie Mellon, delivered his maps on May 20.
Democrats Could Lose Seats in Congress
The Court’s decision has ramifications for politics on the national level as well as for Congressional and State Senate races in the Empire State.
Democrats had hoped that their maps would allow them to pick up three additional Congressional seats in New York and give them a better shot at maintaining their Congressional majority in the midterm elections. Democrats are keenly aware that Republicans have gerrymandered maps in many states and that the party in power in D.C. generally fares poorly in midterm elections.
Now, the Democrats could lose some seats in New York. Furthermore, two high-profile members of Congress representing parts of Manhattan, Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, will have to run against each other in a newly combined district.
Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney/Getty Images
The Major Flaws in New York’s Commission
As background, in 2014 New York voters approved amendments to the state constitution that prohibited partisan and racial gerrymandering and established an advisory commission, the IRC, to draw maps for state-wide and Congressional election districts. Unfortunately, the reform suffers from several major flaws.
Truly independent commissions, such as California’s, hold the power to draw maps, instead of the legislature. However, in New York the IRC commission can only make recommendations; the legislature retains final authority over maps.
There are other critical defects in the IRC’s structure: in New York, politicians appoint the members of the commission, so they are partisan and perhaps beholden to their backers. In addition, the number of commissioners is allocated 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans, with no representatives for independent voters.
Not surprisingly, with the New York commission evenly composed of two partisan groups, its members deadlocked. Rather than compromising and proposing one set of maps, each side proposed its own maps.
By contrast, in California, an impartial group vets candidates for the redistricting commission, ensuring they do not have ties with politicians. Commissioners are divided equally among Democrats, Republicans and independents. This structure forces the Democrats and Republicans on the commission to woo their independent counterparts by making compromises. The process is highly transparent, with extensive public hearings.
Drawing Maps Behind Closed Doors
Democratic lawmakers, who have super-majorities in both houses of the legislatures, summarily rejected both sets of maps from the IRC and developed their own. As the Court noted with disapproval, the legislators drew their maps behind closed doors, refusing to hold any public hearings and rushing to approve the maps within days. The IRC had conducted public hearings throughout the state, as required by law, to hear the views of various constituencies and interest groups.
The New York primary elections were scheduled for June 28, 2022. However, the Court postponed the primary elections for Congressional and State Senate races to August 23, to allow candidates to recalibrate their campaigns in light of the new maps.
The Democratic primary elections for Governor, U.S. Senator and State Assembly seats are not affected by the Court’s decision, so they will take place on June 28, in accordance with the original schedule. Governor Kathy Hochul is facing challenges from Rep. Tom Suozzi, a moderate from Long Island, and Jumaane Williams, the ultra-progressive Public Advocate for New York City. Sen. Chuck Schumer does not face serious opposition in his primary.
New Maps…and A Chaotic Election
The special master ignored the Legislature’s maps and redrew many voting districts in New York. In particular, Mr. Cervas dramatically reshaped the electoral maps for New York City, Westchester County and Long Island.
Candidates had already been campaigning for months, meeting with voters in what they assumed would be their electoral districts. After the special master delivered his maps, candidates have scrambled to revamp their campaigns.
Pitting Nadler against Maloney
In several new districts, candidates have to make agonizing choices, as they face the prospect of running against other Democratic incumbents and allies.
For decades, most of Manhattan has been divided into two Congressional districts that run north/south. Jerry Nadler has represented the West Side of Manhattan and Carolyn Maloney, the East Side. Both Representatives are in their mid-seventies, have served in Congress for three decades and are very influential in Washington.
Rep. Nadler is the chair of the House Judiciary Committee, which oversaw the impeachment proceedings against former President Donald Trump. Rep. Maloney chairs the Oversight and Reform Committee, which recently conducted a reform of the Postal Service.
The two districts have not changed since World War II…until now. Mr. Cervas combined most of Nadler and Maloney’s former districts into a new one that runs east/west in Manhattan. As a result, these two senior Democratic Representatives (and close colleagues) will run against each other, in what promises to be a bruising race.
No one needs to feel sorry for them, of course. Nadler and Maloney have enjoyed long tenure in public office, and they are in the twilight of their careers. But the race is a setback for Democrats, for two reasons.
New York City will lose a powerful advocate, whoever wins the race.
Nadler’s seat is safe, while Maloney has faced two tough challenges from a very progressive politician, Suraj Patel. Now, both Representatives must concentrate on winning re-election, which will distract them from passing legislation before the mid-terms in November. That’s bad news for President Biden, who is under great pressure to get some bills through Congress, and therefore the Democratic Party at large.
A Round of Musical Chairs in Westchester county
The new maps also created problems for the Democrats in Westchester County, where incumbents currently represent three solidly Blue Congressional seats. Mr. Cervas reshuffled the deck, combining parts of certain districts, in such a way that one district became more competitive. That is, Republicans now have a better chance of winning it. Cervas’ revamped design essentially compelled three incumbents to decide whether or not to run against their colleagues in the House.
This led to a frantic round of musical chairs among candidates.
Facing a more challenging general election in his reconfigured district, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney announced he would run in Rep. Mondaire Jones’ 17th District, which includes part of his former territory.
Maloney’s move forced Jones to choose between competing against him or Rep. Jamaal Bowman, in the neighboring 16th District. Either contest would be very awkward: Maloney is well-financed, popular, and close to party leaders. He is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a key fund-raising arm of the Party.
Bowman, like Mondaire, is Black and progressive.
Running against di Blasio
Defusing the situation, Jones bowed out of the race. He announced that instead he would run for Congress in a newly configured 10th District, which encompasses sections of lower Manhattan and Brooklyn. Jones will face off against Bill di Blasio, the former mayor of New York, and Yuh-Line Niou, a New York Assemblywoman from Chinatown.
Jones may seem to have “taken one” for the Party, since he does not have ties to the 10th District. Still, Jones has several advantages:
· He has already amassed an ample campaign chest
· He will enjoy the gratitude and support ($) of Nancy Pelosi and other party leaders
· di Blasio is widely despised by New Yorkers after his weak performance as mayor
There are disruptions in other races, notably in Brooklyn, but you get the picture. It’s a mess.
The moral of this story: Democrats should leave gerrymandering to Republicans. They are so much better at it.