Biden Blew It in Afghanistan

Has Joe Biden crippled his Presidency with his chaotic, inept exit from Afghanistan?

Probably not.  After all, most Americans wanted our troops to leave, and Biden inherited a disastrous agreement that President Trump had made with the Taliban.  

But the President’s dreadful bungling of the withdrawal has badly damaged his standing with the public and weakened the U.S.’s authority around the world.  Worst of all, Biden’s betrayal of Afghans who helped our soldiers has created a humanitarian disaster and badly damaged the U.S.’s honor and reputation.  Regardless of political party, all Americans should feel ashamed that we abandoned about half of our Afghan allies, perhaps 100,000 or more, and left them to the tender mercies of the Taliban.    

The Right Decision-But Terrible Timing

Biden made the right call in deciding to implement the withdrawal agreement that President Donald Trump had made with the Taliban.  Americans are tired of the 20-year-old war, and a majority agree that it’s time for the U.S. to leave Afghanistan.  Polls indicate that over 60% of all Americans, and more than 50% of veterans, support ending the U.S.’s involvement in that country. 

There was no realistic prospect of winning the war. The Taliban were gradually increasing the areas they controlled, even though they often faced stiff resistance from Afghan troops.  Although American casualties were minimal, the Afghan Army was suffering huge losses, and many Afghan civilians were being killed, often by airstrikes. 

Biden inherited a very difficult situation from Trump, who set an unrealistic exit date. However, Biden should have bought the U.S. more time, so it could have executed an orderly, dignified departure and protected its allies. 

Trump’s Disastrous Deal

In his rush to pull out all U.S troops, and with an eye to the 2020 election, Trump negotiated a terrible agreement with the Taliban. Trump excluded the Afghan government from the negotiations—at the Taliban’s demand—and he set a withdrawal date for May 1, 2021.  Trump gravely weakened any negotiating position the Afghan government might have had.  Furthermore, the May 1 withdrawal date played right into the Talilban’s hands, because the war followed a seasonal pattern. 

Over the last 20 years, the Taliban have retreated to their mountain sanctuaries during the harsh Afghan winters.  The Taliban also have not launched major initiatives until after farmers have harvested their poppies—a major cash crop for the country and a source of “taxes” for the Taliban.  As a result, the “fighting season” has not started until late spring, i.e., May.  So Trump agreed to the worst possible  timetable for U.S. troops to leave the country. 

Heads in the Sand

The Biden Administration pushed back the withdrawal date to August 31, buying the U.S. another four months.  With the benefit of hindsight, that was clearly not enough time.  Civilians have to be very careful about second-guessing major military decisions. Still, the Biden Administration has failed to provide satisfactory answers for three interrelated questions: 

·         Why didn’t President Biden delay the withdrawal until December 2021? 

·         Why did the U.S. close the Bagram air base, and end air support for the Afghan Army, in early July? 

·         Why didn’t the U.S. evacuate our Afghan allies and prominent civilians at risk before we withdrew our troops? 

The Administration’s justifications for these decisions are rife with contradictions. 

Iraq, not Saigon, Is the Right Analogy

The horrible images of Afghans clinging to airplanes have evoked comparisons to the humiliating evacuation of American embassy staffers from Saigon.  But there is a more recent, more relevant analogy: the Iraqi Army’s rapid collapse in 2014. 

The South Vietnamese Army fought the North Vietnamese forces fiercely for a year after U.S. troops withdrew from Vietnam.  The U.S. helped 100,000 Vietnamese to leave the country before the South Vietnamese were defeated. 

As it contemplated possible scenarios, the Biden Administration should have focused on the Iraqi debacle as a cautionary tale.  In Iraq, as well as in Afghanistan, the U.S. had tried to create a new army based on an American-style operating model, which relied, among other things, on strong air support. 

President Obama withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011, although many analysts warned that the Iraqi Army was plagued by corruption, weak morale and understaffing (sound familiar?).  On paper, the Iraqi Army—about 200,000 troops—had a vast advantage over ISIS’ ragtag force of fewer than 10,000 fighters.  But when the fighting heated up, in 2014, ISIS quickly overran much of Iraq as the regular forces abandoned their posts and fled. 

Afghans Stranded at Kabul Airport

Running for the Exit

The Biden Administration has said that it relied on intelligence assessments that the Afghan Army could hold off the Taliban for 18 months.  But why did the government ignore the CIA’s much more pessimistic estimates, particularly given the parallels between the Iraqi and Afghan situations? 

Furthermore, U.S. journalists had reported for years that the Afghan Army was plagued with such severe problems that many units did not fight effectively.  The situation deteriorated in 2021; many Afghan soldiers had not been paid for many months, because corrupt commanders were stealing the funds, according to the New York Times.  You did not have to read classified reports to know that most Afghan Army units had very low morale and were suffering huge casualties and high levels of desertions. 

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that Biden, like Trump, was simply hell-bent on leaving Afghanistan and not willing to listen to the CIA officials and, probably, generals, who argued against a rapid withdrawal. 

Why Not Delay the Withdrawal? 

The President has argued that he could not postpone the withdrawal until a later date, such as December, because the Taliban could have claimed that he had violated the agreement and used that as an excuse to attack U.S. troops.  Biden also worried that he would have to send in more U.S. troops if that happened. 

Perhaps.  But Biden had already extended the withdrawal by four months—reducing the possible fighting season—without triggering a response by the Taliban.  Would they really have launched attacks against American troops….and run the risk of being attacked by U.S. and Afghan pilots…if Biden had delayed the pullout for another four months? 

After all, the Taliban had fought 20 years to regain control of Afghanistan.  Isn’t it likely they would have waited another few months, to minimize their casualties, knowing that the Americans would leave? 

In any case, only 2,500 American troops remained in Afghanistan, as well as several thousand military contractors. Without being cavalier, the risk of major American casualties was fairly low, given those numbers.   Meanwhile, the U.S. could have executed an orderly withdrawal.

Why End Air Support in July? 

One of Biden’s key decisions, and one of his worst blunders, was to wind down American air support for the Afghan Army and close the Bagram Air Force base on July 2.  That move drastically curtailed U.S. air attacks against the Taliban.  At the same time, the U.S. withdrew the thousands of military contractors who played an essential role in maintaining the Afghan Air Force’s planes and helicopters.  Afghan pilots began to complain quickly that that they had to reduce their operations sharply, for lack of maintenance and parts. 

These steps immediately changed the balance of power on the ground.  Taliban forces could move freely and aggressively against Afghan cities, since they no longer had to fear being attacked by American planes.  Afghan Army troops knew that the U.S. had essentially abandoned them, by removing the air support.  Morale plummeted even further, and units started surrendering to the Taliban.  The domino effect was massive. 

Biden and his advisers undoubtedly had powerful reasons for shutting down Bagram. Staging an orderly retreat is apparently one of the most dangerous military maneuvers.  The Administration wanted to move large amounts of planes, equipment and personnel out of Afghanistan safely, while the U.S. still controlled the skies.  The Administration accomplished that, but at the expense of our Afghan allies, both military and civilian. 

Why Not Evacuate Our Allies First?

President Biden and his officials have emphasized that the U.S. airlifted over 100,000 Afghans from Kabul Airport in a very short time frame.  That was an extraordinary operation.  However, the U.S. only evacuated about half of the estimated 200,000 Afghans who worked closely with American military or who held high-profile positions in organizations that were advancing U.S. initiatives, such as expanding education for women.     

Those people would obviously face great danger if the Taliban seized power.  The U.S.’s primary goal should have been getting them out of the country safely, before we wound down our combat operations. 

Our government’s purported rationale for this failure would be laughable, if the situation were not so grim.

When Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan President, met with President Biden in April, he asked the President to hold off on a rapid evacuation of Afghan “allies”.  Ghani protested that such an operation would trigger a loss of confidence in his government that could lead to a Taliban victory. 

Ghani’s statement should have been a blazing red light for Biden and his advisers: this regime is a house of cards and it may fall very quickly, so we should get our Afghan allies out now.  Instead, Biden agreed to postpone a large-scale evacuation.  But then President Biden closed the Bagram Air Force Base—which weakened confidence in Ghani’s government. 

President Biden and his allies are smart, experienced people. It’s hard to escape the conclusion that they made a calculated, cold decision: their priority was to minimize U.S. casualties and loss of equipment, rather than saving as many of our allies as possible.

Biden’s Brand is Tarnished

Until the Afghan debacle, Joe Biden performed very well as President.  Unlike Donald Trump, Biden has taken a scientific and energetic approach to fighting the Covid epidemic.  He has appointed capable, experienced officials, and Biden’s policies, in the main, have been moderate and sensible. 

In a sharp contrast to Trump’s race-baiting and treachery, Biden has been competent, honest and decent.  Those are the hallmarks of his brand, if you will.  Biden has restored a sense of order and ethical behavior in the public sphere.  President Biden made us feel proud to be Americans again, after four dark years under Trump. 

Unfortunately, Biden has badly tarnished his brand.  The President and his team showed poor judgment on the Afghan withdrawal, but instead of admitting his mistakes, Biden has blamed others for the debacle.  President Biden criticized Ghani for fleeing Kabul just before the Taliban seized the city, and he accused Afghan soldiers of cowardice.  Those remarks were defensive, snide and unfair. 

If President Ghani had stayed in Kabul, the Taliban would not have rewarded him with a pension and an office for writing his memoirs.  Afghan Army units did surrender in droves, after the U.S. withdrew air support. But over 60,000 Afghan soldiers and police officers died in the war, compared with roughly 6,000 American troops and military contractors. 

Furthermore, Biden’s failure to prioritize our Afghan allies’ safety has undermined his reputation for empathy.  And all Americans, regardless of political party, must feel ashamed by the pictures of desperate Afghans clinging to airplanes as they took off.    

Reputation is hard to earn, easy to lose. How will Joe Biden repair the damage to his reputation?

The Wall Street Democrat